A month ago, this season was done. Not mathematically, but emotionally, it felt over. The Real Madrid exit. Nine points behind Arsenal. No Champions League. It felt like we were just playing out the remaining games and waiting for next year.
And then everything changed.
How the Tide Turned
It all started with the Carabao Cup final. I said it before that game, and I’ll say it again, that win did not just bring a trophy, it brought back something that had been missing from this City squad for months. Belief. Conviction. The feeling that we can actually win something.
Arsenal, since that Carabao Cup final defeat, have lost to City, crashed out of the FA Cup at the hands of Southampton, and then lost 2-1 at home to Bournemouth, making it three defeats in four games across all competitions.
A team that was talking about a quadruple just a few weeks ago is now nervously looking over their shoulder.
And City? City beat Chelsea 3-0 at Stamford Bridge on Sunday. Dominant, controlled, exactly the kind of performance you want heading into a title run-in.
Arsenal are now six points clear at the top, but City have a game in hand. If City wins the head-to-head at home, that gap comes down to 3 with a game in hand.
If all goes well, City could go level on points with Arsenal.
The Confidence Shift Is Real
This is what I was talking about after the Carabao Cup. In January and February, City were playing decent football but couldn’t finish. Players looked hesitant in the final third. They lacked conviction. Now look at them. Six wins on the bounce. Thrashing Chelsea. Pressing high, creating chances, and actually taking them.
Meanwhile, Arsenal are doing exactly what City were doing a few months back. That fear has crossed the road. Arteta himself called the Bournemouth defeat “a big punch to the face.” That is not the language of a team that feels comfortable. That is the language of a team feeling the ground shift beneath them.
Pep’s Premier League win percentage in April is 79%, compared to Arteta’s 44%. April is City’s month. It has been for years. And Arsenal have to come to the Etihad right in the middle of it.
Nico Is the Heartbeat of This Team
I keep coming back to this kid. Every single big moment this season, Nico has been there. The Carabao Cup final, the Chelsea game, match after match, where City needed something, he delivered. If City go on to win something extraordinary this season, he is the player this campaign will be remembered by.
Haaland is still finding his shooting boots if I’m being honest, and some of the chances he’s missed lately have been painful to watch. But even with that, City are scoring freely and creating at will. Once Haaland clicks back into full flow, this attack becomes even scarier.
Is a Treble Actually Possible?
Let’s think about what’s on the table right now.
I already mentioned that if City beat Arsenal at the Etihad next week, they will be within 3 points of the top with a game in hand. Win that, and it’s level on points, potentially ahead on goal difference.
Then there’s the FA Cup. City are in the semi-finals and face Championship side Southampton at Wembley on April 25. That is a very winnable game.
So yes. Premier League is still alive. FA Cup semi-final coming up. Carabao Cup already won. A domestic treble is not a fantasy right now, it is a genuine possibility.
I’m not getting ahead of myself completely. Arsenal are still in the driving seat in the league, and they won’t just collapse. They have Newcastle, Fulham, and other games to pick up points in. But this is a team that is clearly feeling the pressure, and they have to travel to the Etihad next weekend after a Champions League quarter-final second leg in midweek against Sporting Lisbon.
City, meanwhile get a full week to rest and prepare. Just them and that game.
Manchester City vs Arsenal will be a Title Decider
So what does the April 19 fixture mean? Everything, really.
If City win that game, this title race is alive right until the final day. If Arsenal win it, they probably close the door on the league, and City focuses everything on the FA Cup.
But I have watched enough Pep Guardiola football to know that a City team with momentum, at home, against a tired Arsenal side coming off a European game, is a dangerous, dangerous proposition. The Carabao Cup showed what this squad is capable of when they believe in themselves again.
A few weeks ago, I would not have dared to type the word treble. Right now, I’m not taking it off the table.
