I never thought I’d say this as a Manchester City fan. A Carabao Cup final feels like a must-win. Like the season depends on it. But here we are, Sunday at Wembley, the Carabao Cup Final is a make-or-break for us.
After what happened in the last couple of games, which I would very much like to erase from my memory completely, this is the game that matters now.
How Did We Get Here
Last season was the worst City have had under Pep. No Champions League. FA Cup final lost to Crystal Palace, of all teams. Third in the Premier League. The only thing we had to show for the whole year was a Community Shield won on penalties, and nobody genuinely counts that.
This season was supposed to be the response. New signings, Haaland back to his best, a proper rebuild. And for a while, it looked like it was working.
But then all of a sudden it was the same defensive errors, the team running out of ideas and inconsistent, and even after all that, Manchester City were somehow keeping themselves alive in all competitions.
But then Real Madrid happened. A 5-1 aggregate exit. And now in the Premier League, Arsenal are nine points clear, and if you’re being honest with yourself, the title is pretty much gone.
So what’s left? The Carabao Cup final on Sunday. An FA Cup quarter-final against Liverpool in April. That’s it. That’s the season.
Going trophyless two years in a row is simply not something Manchester City do under Pep Guardiola. This club has won four consecutive Premier League titles. A treble. A European treble. Back-to-back barren seasons would be something else entirely, something that would change the conversation about where this club is heading.
Sunday is the first answer to that question.
The History Is Right There
Here’s a detail I love. Pep Guardiola’s first-ever trophy at Manchester City was the 2018 Carabao Cup final. Against Arsenal. A 3-0 win at Wembley. That was the day we announced ourselves, the day Pep lifted his first piece of silverware in blue.
Now, eight years later, same opponent, same stage, different circumstances. City need it far more this time than they did back then.
Arsenal haven’t won the League Cup since 1993. They’ve lost finals. They carry that weight into Sunday. And while they’re the form team right now, chasing a historic quadruple and looking genuinely brilliant in the Premier League, a one-off final at Wembley is a completely different thing.
Pep knows Wembley. City know finals. Our record in League Cup finals is perfect; we’ve never lost one. That does give me some confidence going into this game.
Why This City Team Can Do It
Cherki and Doku have been the two most consistent attacking players for City over the last few weeks. Doku’s energy down the left causes problems for any defence, and Cherki can create something out of absolutely nothing. Haaland scored last time out, and you want him carrying that into Sunday.
On paper, Arsenal are the favourites. Pep himself called them the best team in England right now, which is true to some extent, but we all know what Pep’s doing here.
Pep has the experience of winning 4 Carabao Cup Finals in a row. This City team, even in a turbulent season, knows how to show up when it matters.
So I’m expecting this team to turn up and pull off a result.
What Happens If We Don’t
I don’t even want to think about it for too long. But the reality is that if City lose on Sunday, the “is the cycle over” conversation gets very loud very quickly. The questions about Pep’s future, about the squad, about where this club goes next, all of it intensifies.
A win doesn’t fix everything. There’s still a lot of football to be played, and the FA Cup quarter-final against Liverpool is massive. But a win on Sunday changes the mood. It changes the dressing room. It gives this season something to hold on to.
We’ve been here before and come out the other side stronger. Sunday is the first step back to where we belong.
