The champagne has barely dried on Ousmane Dembélé’s 2025 Ballon d’Or celebration, but in football, time waits for no one. As soon as one Golden Ball is handed out, the conversation instantly shifts to the next. The 2026 race is already heating up with new storylines, new stars, and a few familiar faces who are desperate for redemption.
This year’s award feels even more unpredictable. It’s a World Cup year, club football is crazier than ever, and the competition is stacked with players who are hitting world-class form at the perfect time. From Mbappé’s inevitable rise to Lamine Yamal’s teenage takeover, we’re looking at one of the most exciting Ballon d’Or races in years.
So, let’s break it down. Who are the top contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or, and where do they stand as of October?
Top 10 Contenders for the 2026 Ballon d’Or (October)
10. Luis Díaz (Bayern Munich)
When Liverpool sold Luis Díaz to Bayern Munich, many questioned the move. Fast forward to October, and it looks like Bayern got the deal of the season.
The Colombian winger has exploded in Germany, with seven goals and four assists in just 13 games, already becoming a key part of Thomas Tuchel’s attack. His direct dribbling and relentless energy fit Bayern’s high-octane style perfectly.
The only thing holding him back in the Ballon d’Or race? Colombia’s chances at the World Cup. Unless they make a deep run, Díaz might fall short in the international spotlight, but make no mistake, he’s putting himself firmly in the conversation.
9. Michael Olise (Bayern Munich)
Bayern Munich doesn’t just have one electric winger; they have two. Michael Olise has been an absolute revelation since joining from Crystal Palace in 2024 for £50 million, and that fee now looks like daylight robbery.
At just 23, Olise has adapted seamlessly to life in Bavaria, delivering goals, assists, and highlight reels almost every week. His link-up with Harry Kane and Díaz has made Bayern’s attack one of Europe’s most feared.
If France goes all the way at the World Cup, and let’s be honest, they always have a shot. Olise’s form could easily catapult him into the top five by season’s end.
8. Pedri (Barcelona)
Barcelona might have had its ups and downs, but Pedri continues to be their calm in the storm. The 22-year-old midfielder has matured into one of the most complete playmakers in world football.
His control, intelligence, and vision have drawn endless comparisons to Andrés Iniesta, and even Hansi Flick, Barça’s manager, admits there’s no one quite like him right now.
Pedri’s biggest challenge has been fitness. When he’s healthy, Barcelona plays differently, smoother, sharper, more confident. If Spain has a strong World Cup and Barça stay in the title race, Pedri could finally step into the Ballon d’Or spotlight that’s been waiting for him since 2021.
7. Jude Bellingham (Real Madrid)
It feels like Jude Bellingham has been a Ballon d’Or favorite forever, but injuries slowed him down just when he was about to explode. Now, fully fit and back from shoulder surgery, the Englishman looks hungrier than ever.
After carrying Real Madrid to a La Liga and Champions League double in 2024, scoring 23 goals from midfield, he’s once again in the thick of things. His El Clásico performance this year said it all: a match-winning goal, an assist for Mbappé, and complete dominance in midfield.
If Bellingham stays fit and England goes deep at the World Cup, he’s not just a contender, he’s a potential favorite.
6. Ousmane Dembélé (Paris Saint-Germain)
The reigning Ballon d’Or winner enters this season with one mission: prove it wasn’t a one-off.
And so far, he’s doing just that. With three goals and two assists in his first six games, Dembélé is showing no signs of slowing down. Luis Enrique has built PSG’s attack around his unpredictable pace and creativity, and it’s working beautifully.
Retaining the Ballon d’Or is one of football’s toughest challenges; only Messi, Ronaldo, and Michel Platini have managed it. Dembélé has the form, the freedom, and the platform. But in a World Cup year, even perfection at club level might not be enough.
5. Vinícius Júnior (Real Madrid)
Few players have as much unfinished business with the Ballon d’Or as Vinícius Júnior.
He was the clear favorite in 2024, skipped the ceremony in protest when he found out he wasn’t winning, and then had to endure a trophyless season with Madrid. Fast forward to now, and the Brazilian looks like a man on a mission.
Five goals, four assists, and countless defenders left in the dust, Vinícius is back to his best under Xabi Alonso. If Madrid lift another Champions League or if Brazil shine at the World Cup, it might finally be his moment. After all, no Brazilian has won the Ballon d’Or since Kaká in 2007, and Vini would love to end that drought.
4. Lamine Yamal (Barcelona)
What were you doing at 17? Because Lamine Yamal was winning the Euros for Spain and carrying Barcelona on his back.
The youngest player on this list has already broken so many records that it’s hard to keep count. While his numbers this season, three goals and five assists in eight games, are impressive, he has been struggling with injuries, which means the best is yet to come.
There’s never been a teenage Ballon d’Or winner, but Yamal doesn’t seem to care about history. He’s rewriting it every week. If he keeps improving and Spain or Barcelona deliver trophies, the unthinkable could become reality.
3. Harry Kane (Bayern Munich)
When Harry Kane left Tottenham, people wondered if he could handle the pressure of being the face of a European giant. A year later, that question feels ridiculous.
Kane is doing Kane things, scoring goals for fun (20 in 13 games already), creating chances, and running Bayern’s attack like a conductor. The Bundesliga trophy has already ended his long wait for silverware, but his eyes are now on bigger prizes: the Champions League and the World Cup.
If England have a deep World Cup run and Bayern go far in Europe, Kane might just complete football’s greatest redemption arc.
2. Erling Haaland (Manchester City)
It’s a scary thought, but Erling Haaland is somehow getting better. After two slightly quieter seasons by his insane standards, the Norwegian striker has come out this year like a man possessed.
Fifteen goals in 12 games, he is scoring hat-tricks for fun, and that same ruthless hunger to destroy everything in his path. When Haaland’s in this mood, there’s not a defender on the planet who can stop him.
City is still adapting after some tactical changes, but once they hit top gear again, Haaland’s numbers could go from incredible to inhuman. If Norway manages to shock the world at the World Cup, or even if City win another treble, the Golden Ball might finally be his.
1. Kylian Mbappé (Real Madrid)
It feels inevitable, doesn’t it?
Ever since he burst onto the scene, Kylian Mbappé has been billed as the heir to Messi and Ronaldo, and this season might finally be the one where he takes that throne for good.
After his high-profile move from PSG to Real Madrid, Mbappé needed a few months to adjust. He did win the European Golden Boot and scored a lot of Goals, but he was still a shadow of himself.
But now? He’s on fire. Sixteen goals in 13 games across all competitions, already forming a terrifying partnership with Bellingham and Vinícius, and leading Madrid’s charge on all fronts.
Add France’s World Cup ambitions to the mix, and Mbappé could be unstoppable. He’s entering his prime, his club and country are both elite, and his performances scream “Ballon d’Or winner.”
Unless something dramatic happens, this is Mbappé’s year to finally step out of the shadow of the legends before him.
All stats mentioned in this article are from Transfermarkt
What will decide the Ballon d’Or 2026?
It’s not just about stats anymore. The modern Ballon d’Or winner has to combine individual brilliance with global relevance. Media narrative, leadership, and big-game moments all matter.
Think of Luka Modrić in 2018, not the top scorer, but the story of Croatia’s underdog World Cup run carried him to the crown. Or Messi in 2022, whose fairytale ending with Argentina sealed his eighth.
In 2026, the World Cup will again be the ultimate decider. Whoever shines brightest on football’s biggest stage, whether that’s Mbappé, Bellingham, or even an outsider like Olise, will have the edge when voters sit down next October.
